Soybean Exports Stronger than Expected, but...

ifr170728–190
Soybean Exports Stronger than Expected, but…
Todd Hubbs, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois

The price of soybeans has remained strong, but there is good reason not to be overly optimistic. Todd Gleason has more from the University of Illinois.

Farmers in South America harvested a big bean…
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Farmers in South America harvested a big bean crop this year. No, that’s not right, Brazilian farmers harvested an enormous soybean crop. Despite this U.S. soybean exports have remained very strong much later into the calendar year than usual. It wasn’t expected says University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Todd Hubbs, and he says it is a positive sign.

Hubbs :12 …about 48 it is going to be a huge crop.

Quote Summary - Having said that, we are still looking at eighty-nine-and-a-half million acres of soybeans with an undetermined yield right now. If it hits trend of about 48, it is going to be a huge crop.

Hubbs has been watching the supply and demand functions of the commodity markets. He understands why traders have built a weather premium into the soybean market, however, looking forward he says domestic crush hasn’t been up to snuff, and even with strong exports, he expects ending stocks to build into next fall. That is in the United States. It also appears South American farmers are going to plant more soybeans for the coming season.

Hubbs :14 …all downward pressure on soybean prices.

Quote Summary - It looks like going into the 2018/19 marketing year Brazilian farmers will be looking to plant more soybean and fewer corn acres. This is all downward pressure on soybean prices.

Given that analysis, soybeans are a crop made or broken during the month of August in the United States. Weather will be the most probable determining factor over the next six to eight weeks.