A Weather Market & Corn Yields

ifr170728–186
A Weather Market & Corn Yields
Todd Hubbs, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois

The corn market has been up and down with the weather forecast this summer. Todd Gleason has this look at current conditions impacting price.

Each day the weather changes and just as often…
1:52 radio
1:59 radio self-contained

Each day the weather changes and just as often, it seems, so has the direction of corn prices. Todd Hubbs from the University of Illinois was of the opinion a couple of weeks ago that corn market had a some upside potential. It did, but now, maybe it doesn’t. This has him thinking about the number of acres of corn in the United States, the impact of the weather on yield, and how the market might react August 10th when the United States Department of Agriculture releases the first corn crop production report of the season.

Hubbs :40 …with about 168/169 yield on August 10th.

Quote Summary - We talk about increased corn acreage and maybe a yield loss below trend. Is that seven bushels to the acre, five bushels, or two bushels. It is really hard at this point to say, but I am looking at, out of my little model, 168 bushel national yield. Still it is hard to say what USDA is going to put out on August 10th. I’m looking forward to see what they are saying about yields. If the market is pricing in 164/165 yield on corn, then the price moves aren’t going to be good if they come in with about 168/169 yield on August 10th.

Here’s the upshot for Hubbs. He does not think the amount of corn left over from last year is particular oppressive to the market place. It’s big, but not enough to really weigh heavily on price. So, if this year’s corn crop isn’t near average there will be upside price potential.

Hubbs :14 …corn in that $3.80 to $3.85 range with some runs.

Quote Summary - I’m not as high on corn prices as I was before, but I think there is still a possibility. I see the seasonal average farm price for 17/18 corn in that $3.80 to $3.85 range with some runs.

You may read more from University of Illinois Agricultural Economist most Monday’s on the farmdocDaily website (farm doc daily).