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Monday, June 26, 2017

USDA’s June 30 Grain Stocks Report for Corn

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USDA’s June 30 Grain Stocks Report for Corn
Todd Hubbs, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois

Friday the United States Department of Agriculture will estimate how much corn is left in the country. This amount will need to sustain the nation through the fall harvest. Todd Gleason has more on the Grain Stocks report.

The Grain Stocks report is released once a quarter…
3:29 radio
3:43 radio self-contained

The Grain Stocks report is released once a quarter by USDA. It is made up of two parts. The first is a survey, nearly a census, of the number of bushels - in this case of corn - a grain elevator, terminal, or other type of certified storage facility has in possession. These are tallied as off farm bushels. The other part is more of a guesstimate of how many on farm bushels are in storage.

When combined these two surveys provide a picture of how many bushels are available in the United States, the available supply. The market keeps track of this, too. When the report is released it compares what it thinks should be available with what USDA says is actually available and then adjusts price accordingly.

The trade estimates this Friday’s Grain Stocks report should show about 5.158 (Reuters median) billion bushels of corn on hand. The largest number for the June stocks report since 1988, and the third highest in records going back to the 1920’s. University of Illinois agricultural economist Todd Hubbs is using a lower number. His estimate is 4.944 billion bushels.

Hubbs :54 …bushels of usage for other use besides ethanol.

Quote Summary - Now that is assuming feed using in the 3rd quarter was a 1,241 million bushels. This keeps with the normal 3rd quarter trend usage with the USDA targeted total corn for feed usage of 5,500 million bushels. We’ve seen strong exports, 688 million bushels in the 3rd quarter; excellent corn usage for ethanol at 1,342 million bushels in my estimate; and we’ve seen stronger industrial uses for corn. USDA has upped those figures over the last few WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) reports and I’ve about 413 million bushels of usage for other use besides ethanol.

The “other” category would include products like glucose and dextrose that can be made from corn. Again given the usage which took place during the third quarter, Todd Hubbs estimates the June 1 grain stocks report will show something near 4.944 billion bushels of corn in all positions. And he says this figure would be on pace to meet USDA’s usage goals for the year including the 5.5 billion bushels it expects to be feed to livestock.

Hubbs :31 …cenarios which would mean a higher stocks number.

Quote Summary - I think if we are within 100 to 150 million bushels of that, then we are on pace to hit that 5,500 million bushel feed and residual number. Anything outside of that range. You know, there might be a warning signal. If I were to say, would it be higher or lower? Based on the usage in this marketing year, it might be less feed and residual use would be the more likely of the two scenarios which would mean a higher stocks number.

And that brings us back to the trade estimate. ILLINOIS’ Todd Hubbs is at 4.944 billion bushels. The median trade guess is 5.158 billion bushels. That’s enough of a difference, 164 million bushels, that it could generate a push higher in the corn market if Hubbs is correct. However, this number is likely to be way over shadowed by the other report due from USDA Friday. It will release the both the Grain Stocks and the Acreage reports at 11am central time.