Even if Brazil has Big Corn Crop, US Still King

ifr170317–065
Even if Brazil has Big Corn Crop, US Still King
Todd Hubbs, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois

This month USDA predicted Brazilian farmers would raise a record sized corn crop. Even if they do, as Todd Gleason reports because the United States is far and away the biggest player on the world stage, one agricultural economist sees demand holding the price of corn steady.

Last fall U.S. farmers harvested a 15.1 billion…
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Last fall U.S. farmers harvested a 15.1 billion bushel corn crop. By comparison, Brazilian producers will take in 3.6 billion bushels this year. At least that’s what USDA is predicting at the moment. Much of that crop has just been planted and there is a great deal weather between now and harvest time, three months from now, says Todd Hubbs, University of Illinois Agricultural Economist.

Hubbs :33 …lowered feed and residual use for old crop corn.

Quote Summary - Just like with any weather-related crop, the possibility is there for a bad crop year. I feel like that number could turn out. It really could. Even if it does, we are still the major corn producer in the world and lot of what is going to domestically does support corn prices moving forward. We’ve seen really strong corn use for ethanol. USDA raised that number another 10 million bushels. However, on the flip-side, they once again lowered feed and residual use for old crop corn.

The result of the changes to the U.S. corn balance sheet was a wash. Meaning there wasn’t a change in how much corn will be left over at the end of this marketing year. Still U of I’s Hubbs, despite two big corn crops, thinks there is hope.

Hubbs :05 …feels pretty strong in corn right now.

Quote Summary - I feel like the domestic market feels pretty strong in corn right now.

We’ll no more about how much underpinning strength there might be in the corn market March 31. USDA releases two reports that day. One will estimate how much corn has been used to feed livestock in the nation, and the other surveys how many acres of corn, and other crops, U.S. farmers expect to plant this year.