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Showing posts from October, 2015

Farmland Prices and Farm Solvency Then & Now

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Farmland Prices and Farm Solvency Then & Now
Gary Schnitkey, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois Years of low commodity prices, and losses on the farm, have some wondering whether the agricultural boom-bust cycle of the 1970’s and 80’s is repeating itself. The balance sheets, as Todd Gleason reports, say probably not. There are some big differences between the farm crisis…
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There are some big differences between the farm crisis of the 1980’s and the current situation in middle America. Then, as now, commodity price had slumped after soaring for a few years. The price of farmland had skyrocketed, too, just like now. However, unlike today interest rates were high and farmers were deep in debt when the price of farmland finally bottomed 42 percent below its high. Gary Schnitkey wanted to know what would happen today in that kind of worst case scenario. So he ran the numbers. S…

World Health Organization Oversteps with Red Meat Assertion

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World Health Organization Oversteps with Red Meat Assertion
John Erdman, Food Scientist & Professor Emeritus - University of IllinoisWhile it has been known for quite sometime that processed meats… things like bacon and sausage and jerky… might slightly increase your risk of colorectal cancer. A professor emeritus of food science at the University of Illinois says the World Health Organization may have thrown up too much of a red flag on them, and certainly did so on red meat.Erdman :19 …overstep their bounds a little bit on that. Quote Summary - The W-H-O report then went into the red meats, the unprocessed meats, and suggested there is an increased risk of certain cancers. I think they did overstep their bounds a little bit on that. The W-H-O report admits it was unable to say the 800 studies they looked at correlated eating red meat with the development of cancer. The increased risk of contracting colorectal cancer from eating processed meat every day, puts …

Interview with Illinois Professor Emeritus on W-H-O Red Meat Release

Interview with Illinois Professor Emeritus on W-H-O Red Meat Release
John Erdman, Food Scientist & Professor Emeritus - University of IllinoisDiscussion with Food Science Professor Emeritus John Erdman about the World Health Organization’s red meat, processed meat as carcinogens 2015 release.

Crop Insurance Undercut by Budget Deal

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Crop Insurance Undercut by Budget Deal Jonathan Coppess, Agricultural Policy Specialist - University of Illinois The federal government is expected to vote on the budget deal, maybe as soon as today. If it goes through unchanged one of the safety net programs for agriculture, crop insurance, will most definitely fall to the axe says University of Illinois Ag Policy Specialist Jonathan Coppess. Coppess :11 …getting changes at this hour is an uphill climb.Quote Summary - I’ve heard that this saves about three billion dollars and that it is part of a big budget package. Getting changes at this hour is an uphill climb.Coppess is in Washington, D.C. today. He says the deal would not eliminate crop insurance, but might force premiums higher, and shrink the number of places capable of providing it.

Crop Insurance S.R.A. Capped at 8.9% Under Budget Deal

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Crop Insurance S.R.A. Capped at 8.9% Under Budget Deal
Jonathan Coppess, Agricultural Policy Specialist - University of Illinois

The federal government is expected to vote on the budget deal, maybe as soon as today. If it goes through unchanged one of the safety net programs from agriculture will most definitely fall to the axe. Todd Gleason has more on what will happen to crop insurance.

University of Illinois Ag Policy Specialist Jonathan Coppess…
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University of Illinois Ag Policy Specialist Jonathan Coppess is in Washington, D.C. He says the deal would require the Obama Administration to renegotiate the Standard Reinsurance Agreement or S.R.A. and take 3 billion dollars out of the crop insurance program over a ten year period.

Coppess :44 …getting changes at this hour is an uphill climb.
Quote Summary - And within that renegotiation put a cap if you will, or a limit on the rate of return for crop insurance companies at a very low ra…

SPOT NEWS: World Health Organization Classifies Red Meat "Probably" Carcinogenic

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SPOT NEWS
(see feature story one more down)

World Health Organization Classifies Red Meat “Probably” Carcinogenic

Red meat causes cancer. That’s what the headlines are saying, but as you’ll hear from Todd Gleason the W-H-O study doesn’t quite come to that conclusion.

Monday (October 26, 2015) the World Health Organization suggested…
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Monday (October 26, 2015) the World Health Organization suggested it would be good to limit the amount of red and processed meat we consume. There has been quite a firestorm in the media declaring “red meat causes cancer”.

That’s not actually what the W-H-O said in its press release. It actually classified the consumption of red meat as “probably” carcinogenic to humans. Going on to point out that processed meats, things like ham & sausage or hotdogs & corned beef, if eaten every day does increase the chance of getting colorectal cancer by 18%.

Again - red meat, steaks, pork chops and the like, “probably carcinogenic” but …

FEATURE - World Health Organization Classifies Red Meat "Probably" Carcinogenic

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FEATURE
World Health Organization Classifies Red Meat “Probably” CarcinogenicRed meat causes cancer. That’s what the headlines are saying, but as you’ll hear from Todd Gleason the W-H-O study doesn’t quite come to that conclusion.Monday (October 26, 2015) the World Health Organization suggested…
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3:09 radio self contained Monday (October 26, 2015) the World Health Organization suggested it would be good to limit the amount of red and processed meat we consume. There has been quite a firestorm in the media declaring “red meat causes cancer”. That’s not actually what the W-H-O said in its press release. It actually classified the consumption of red meat as “probably” carcinogenic to humans. Going on to point out that processed meats, things like ham & sausage or hotdogs & corned beef, if eaten every day does increase the chance of getting colorectal cancer by 18%. Again - red meat, steaks, pork chops and the like, “probably carcinogenic” but the 800 studie…

Beef: High Prices Cure High Prices

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Beef: High Prices Cure High Prices
Chris Hurt, Purdue Extension Agricultural Economist The adage that the cure for high prices is “High Prices” sure looks right for the beef market this year. Todd Gleason has more with Purdue Extension Agricultural Economist Chris Hurt. The price of beef cattle reached a record high…
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4:05 radio self contained The price of beef cattle reached a record high of about $170 for a hundred pounds in late 2014 and early 2015. It has plummeted since, dropping 50 bucks. Interestingly, hogs took a similar nose dive from mid-last year to this year and it seems likely the price of eggs, which skyrocketed last spring because of Avian Influenza, is destined for the same fate. Or so thinks Purdue Extension Agricultural Economist Chris Hurt. He says it is all part of agriculture’s boom/bust cycle.Hurt : …now seeking to better evaluate equilibrium.Quote Summary - When analyst look back on these boom/bust price patterns, the supply and demand dat…

Argentina's Presidential Election Important for Soybean Market

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Argentina’s Presidential Election Important for Soybean Market
Michael Cordonnier, Soybean and Corn Advisor - Hinsdale, IllinoisThis Sunday’s presidential election in Argentina is important to soybean farmers in the United States. Todd Gleason has more. The vying candidates have differing views… 1:09 radio 1:13 radio self containedThe vying candidates have differing views on the commodity export tax. If it is removed, South American agricultural expert Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor says farmers in Argentina will plant corn rather than beans. Cordonnier :28 …will go out there and plant some more corn. Quote Summary - That would be a game changer in Argentina. If they take off those export taxes, the farmers would like to plant more corn. Because right not there are six times more acres of soybeans than corn. They want to rotate more because the government is forcing them to have a mono crop of soybeans. So, if they take off the export tax. I think instantl…

2016 Farmland Price Outlook

2016 Farmland Price Outlook
Todd Kuethe, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois

While farmland prices likely will continue to see downward pressure into 2016, the capitalized values do not suggest the price of farmland is too high or in a bubble. Todd Gleason has more from the agricultural economists at the University of Illinois.

Three agricultural economist at ILLINOIS have written…
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Three agricultural economist at ILLINOIS have written an article about the value of farmland for the Farm Doc Daily website. It, in simple terms, says two things. First, the price of farmland is not too high, or even in an economic bubble. Secondly, the downturn in commodity prices does not point to a situation like the farm crisis of the 1980s. Here’s one of the co-authors of the article, Todd Kuethe.
Kuethe :41 …those movements always getting pushed down the line.
Quote Summary - So the two parts to that are, first, obviously cash rents. Which we expect to…

The Regular Climate Pattern of Brazil

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The Regular Climate Pattern of Brazil
Mike Tannura, tStorm Weather - Chicago, IllinoisThey say it is best to keep your friends close and your …let’s go with competitors in the soybean market… even closer. Todd Gleason has this story on how weather patterns in Brazil generally unfold year in and year out. The Brazilian climate is unique…
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2:51 radio self contained The Brazilian climate is unique. It is unlike anything that occurs in the United States. However, this country is poised to become the world’s most productive source of soybeans. It is expected to unseat the U.S. in 2017, though that could happen as early as next year. Farmers in the state of Mato Grosso grow most of soybeans in Brazil. Their winter months, unlike what happens in the United States from New Orleans to Minneapolis and Columbus to Omaha, are bone dry says University of Illinois alum and agricultural meteorologist Mike Tannura. Tannura :20 ..somewhere around ten inches of rain per month. .Q…

Which Way for Soybean Prices

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Which Way for Soybean Prices
Darrel Good, Agricultural Economist - University of IllinoisSoybean prices have been on a roller coaster over the past three months. Todd Gleason has more on which direction is most likely to maintain control.The price swings reflect changing expectations…
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4:00 radio self contained The price swings reflect changing expectations about the size of the U.S. soybean crop, uncertain U.S. export prospects, and the potential impact of the weather as it relates to El NiƱo. Depending on how those factors unfold, soybean prices could move substantially in either direction over the next six months. Here’s the case University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Darrel Good says that can be built if one believes the price of soybeans will move lower.Good :40 …as was the case this year.Quote Summary - The case for lower soybean prices starts with the expectation that the U.S. average soybean yield for the crop currently being harvested will exceed…

Don't Bet the Cash Rented Farm on a Loss

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Don’t Bet the Cash Rented Farm on a Loss
Gary Schnitkey, Extension Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois

It is very difficult to give up a farm, even one that is losing money because the cash rent is too high. Todd Gleason has a few simple guidelines one might follow to help them make that decision.

Those farmers thinking they can withstand a loss…
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Those farmers thinking they can withstand a loss on a farm next year because the cash rent is too high should put things in a longterm perspective to see if it is viable strategy. First and foremost says University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Gary Schnitkey realistic expectations of future returns should be used.

Schnitkey :28 …question if those rents are sustainable. If they are not, then lower those rents.
Quote Summary - It is about long run prices. It has been suggested $4.60 corn and $10.60 soybeans. Some years we will be above that and some year…

Africa and Soybean Trials

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Africa and Soybean Trials
Abush Tesfaye, Jimma Agricultural Research Institute - Ethiopia
Godfree Chigeza, International Institute of Tropical Agriculture - Zambia The nations of Africa have struggled to feed themselves for decades. There are some places, like South Africa, that have successfully adapted some of world’s primary crops. Corn is a good example. Soybeans are also grown in Africa, but they’re not particularly high yielding varieties. Todd Gleason reports soybean breeders from three African institutions have been visiting the United States in hopes of making some improvements. The Soybean Innovation Lab is on the third floor…
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2:57 radio self contained The Soybean Innovation Lab is on the third floor of Mumford Hall at the University of Illinois. It is just an office space in the agricultural college. Well, not really just an office space. The lab works to find better ways for Africa to feed itself and grow local economies. This is much easier said th…

The Corn Crop is Unlikely to be Overestimated

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The Corn Crop is Unlikely to be Overestimated
Darrel Good, Agricultural Economist - University of IllinoisAfter the Crop Production report was released last week some of the trade began to discuss the possibility USDA had overestimated the size of the U.S. corn crop. Todd Gleason reports this is not very likely.The USDA’s October 9 Crop Production report forecast…
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3:46 radio self contained USDA’s October 9 Crop Production report forecast the 2015 corn crop at about 13.6 billion bushels. That was down 30 million bushels from September and 660 million bushels smaller than last year. Commentary following the release of the report suggests some believe the corn crop is even smaller. One of the factors cited as evidence the crop may be smaller than forecast is the strong basis levels in many markets. This seems the make some sense. The argument is that a crop as large as forecast, particularly in the face of a rapid pace of harvest and a large soybean crop, would no…

Working Capital on the Farm

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Working Capital on the Farm
Gary Schnitkey, Extension Agricultural Economist - University of IllinoisLow commodity prices are quickly eating into the reserves farmers built up over the last several years. Todd Gleason has more on agriculture’s ‘working capital’. Farmers built up working capital reserves over…
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2:37 radio self containedFarmers built up working capital reserves over a six year period lasting from 2006 to 2012. Those reserves have been tapped each year since then in order to keep operations running smoothly says University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Gary Schnitkey. However they’re still well above the average from little more than a decade ago.Schnitkey :25 …2004 when it was average close to $200. Quote Summary - The average grain farm enrolled in the Illinois FBFM record keeping service had $588 of working capital per acre at the end of 2014. Working capital is current assets minus current liabilities. This is up considerably from 2000 to …

TPP Will Create 76,000 Ag Related Jobs

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TPP Will Create 76,000 Ag Related Jobs
Tom Vilsack, U.S. Secretary of AgricultureThe Obama administration is working to inform the public about the benefits of the new trade deal called the Trans-Pacific Partnership. To that end the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture has been talking about job creation. In general the U.S. Trade Representative’s office reports every billion dollars of U.S. exports creates fifty-eight-hundred jobs. However, Tom Vilsack says every billion dollars worth of agricultural exports creates sixty-five-hundred jobs.Vilsack :33 …supporting thousands of good paying jobs. Quote - And those jobs are generally higher paying jobs. Anywhere from 13 to 18% higher in income. So, this is really about creating jobs and it is estimated, anticipated, there will be about 130 billion dollars in additional trade will take place in terms of our exports going to other countries. Nine-percent of that, on average, is usually agriculture, so you can do the math. You …

Sell on Short Term Rallies - Darrel Good Interview

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Sell on Short Term Rallies - Darrel Good Interview
Darrel Good, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois Wednesday, September 30th USDA tallied how much of last fall’s harvest was still left in the bin. Todd Gleason spoke with University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Darrel Good about the figures. He started the conversation by asking which of the numbers were most important. There are three numbers I think everybody looks…
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7:00 radio self contained That was Todd Gleason talking with University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Darrel Good by the final Grain Stocks report for the 2014/2015 marketing year.