RINs Market Predicts Higher BioFuels Proposal

ifr150529-72
RINs Market Predicts Higher BioFuels Proposal
Scott Irwin, Ag Economist - University of Illinois

INTRO - U.S. EPA is set to release for comment the guidelines for how much renewable fuel must be used in the United States. Todd Gleason has more from the Univesity of Illinois on what the proposal might say.

Corn and soybean farmers have a lot at stake when U.S. EPA…
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EXTRO - EPA could release its Renewable Fuel Standards as early as today. Scott Irwin thinks it would not be be surprising for EPA to propose biodiesel mandates ranging from 1.8–2.3 billion gallons and ethanol mandates from 13.8–14.5 billion gallons.



University of Illinois Ag Economist Scott Irwin has used the free market price of a related product, something called a RIN (rin), as an indicator of what the proposal might show.
Irwin :35 …change in policy from the preliminary 2013 proposal.
Quote Summary - If the RINs market is correct then this is a big win for biofuels. Big win. Because it means the total RFS mandate levels are not going to be cut beyond what is allowed in the law in terms of waiving the cellulosic mandate. This is a huge change in policy from the preliminary 2013 proposal.
The benefits, for farmers, will show up in the soybean based biodiesel and vegetable oil markets says Irwin, and not in the corn and ethanol markets. RINs’ pricing suggests EPA will propose biodiesel mandates close to the congressional statutes in a way that would also help fulfill the need in the corn based ethanol niche.