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Quarterly Grain Stocks Report Projections

ifr190111–010
Quarterly Grain Stocks Report Projections
Todd Hubbs, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois When the government reopens USDA will update the Grain Stocks report. Todd Gleason explains how this assessment of usage plays into the price of corn and soybeans. 1:58 radio
2:01 radio self-contained The Grain Stocks report is tallied four times per year. For corn and soybeans these are December 1st, March 1st, June 1st, and September 1st. They’re done in this order and correspond to the beginning and the end of the year supplies. The reports always read “As of”. So, for instance, the Grain Stocks report that was supposed to come out this Friday would read as of December 1st. The report, as USDA sees it, is nearly a survey. The agency contacts about 9000 grain elevators, and other storage facilities across the United States to see how many bushels of corn and soybeans are on hand on and off the farm. Then they pretty much make a very well educated guess as to how much ha…

January Crop Report Yield Expectations

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January Crop Report Yield Expectations
Todd Hubbs, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois The January USDA reports have been delayed until further notice because of the government shutdown. As Todd Gleason reports it is expected once these numbers are released the changes in the national yields for corn and soybeans could be positive for price.2:09 radio
2:29 radio self-containedThe last time USDA updated corn and soybean yields was in the month of November. Both crops saw a drop in predicted yield for the 2018 harvest. This drop has been since complicated by harvest problems. Todd Hubbs from the University of Illinois says history can sometimes be a guide to how the January Crop Production report might change. More often than not when the yields from October to November go down, the U of I commodities specialist says they drop again in January. Hubbs :31 …is really supportive for corn prices moving forward.Quote Summary - And what you see is when you see a yield…

Dissecting Collin Peterson's Farm Bill Preview

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Dissecting Collin Peterson’s Farm Bill Preview
Jonathan Coppess, Agricultural Policy Specialist - University of Illinois Last Monday Minnesota Congressman Collin Peterson held a press conference in Moorhead. There in his home state, Mr. Peterson spent twenty-four minutes detailing the Farm Bill conference agreement. University of Illinois Agricultural Policy Specialist Jonathan Coppess listened to the discussion and has this review with farm broadcaster Todd Gleason.

Corn Exports are On Pace

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Corn Exports are On Pace
Todd Hubbs, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois Each Friday over the past three weeks December corn futures closed lower. These lower weekly thresholds have come despite a very good export pace. Todd Gleason has more from the Univeristy of Illinois. USDA projects this marketing year U.S. corn exports…
1:37 radio
1:49 radio self-contained USDA projects this marketing year U.S. corn exports will top two-point-four-billion bushels. So far that doesn’t look too bad says University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Todd Hubbs. Hubbs :19 …within the 2.45 billion bushels in my opinion.Quote Summary - We are definitely on pace. We’ll above last year’s pace, but everybody needs to remember we got off to a sluggish start last year and it really picked up in the second-half of the marketing year. We’ve seen a little bit of weakness recently, but we are still within the 2.45 billion bushels in my opinion.Hubbs is okay with USDA’s corn-used-to-pro…

Corn and Soybean Acreage Prospects for 2019

As US farmers finish the fall harvest, considerable speculation will occur over the next few months about the acreage decisions they’ll make for 2019. Todd Gleason discusses how current market conditions support an acreage increase next year for corn and a reduction for soybeans with University of Illinois agricultural economist Todd Hubbs.farmdocDaily article
by Todd Hubbs, University of IllinoisProspects for 2019 crop acreage levels begin with expectations about planted acreage for principal crops. In 2018, acreage planted in principal field crops expanded to 322 million acres, up 2.9 million acres from the previous year. A large share of increased acreage came from an expansion of spring wheat acreage by 2.18 million acres, cotton acreage by 1.4 million acres, and hay acreage by 1.28 million acres. Corn and soybean acreage decreased by 1.03 and .997 million acres respectively. Illinois increased planted acreage by 188,000 acres like most of the primary Corn Belt states. A significa…

What to do about 2019 Cash Rents

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VOICER
What to do about 2019 Cash Rents
Gary Schnitkey, Agricultural Economist - University of IllinoisFarm income this year, once the Market Facilitation Program payments are thrown in, look to be about average. However, next year is a much bigger problem says Gary Schnitkey from the University of Illinois. One that farmers and landowners need to tackle when they set cash rents. Schnitkey :24 …cash rent might be a good thing for next year. Quote Summary - Flexibility is a key. I would suggest lowering cash rents if at all possible. You know, there is always this possibility that things change if something miraculous happens and we get back to $9.50 soybean prices or we have another Market Facilitation Program payment next year. So, building in a variable cash rent might be a good thing for next year. If you’d like to explore possible variable cash rent agreements you can find examples online. Search Google for “variable cash rent lease examples” and then click on the Far…

Take a Good Hard Look at Selling Soybeans

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Take a Good Hard Look at Selling Soybeans
Todd Hubbs, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois
read farmdocDaily articleThe price of soybeans rallied out of the October USDA Crop Production report. This is because it showed fewer acres of the crop would be harvested this season. Todd Gleason reports one university analyst thinks the upside potential is very limited. I don’t know if this thing is sustainable…
2:26 radio
2:40 radio self-contained Hubbs :25 …the upside potential is limited. Quote Summary - I don’t know if this thing is sustainable. It doesn’t feel that way to me. Moving through the rest of the harvest year and towards the start of 2019 I think we are going to have to see some kind of production issues in the South American crop or if China breaks and doesn’t holdout completely on taking U.S. soybeans before we see a sustained upward movement. I think the upside potential is limited. Limited because, even if this year’s crop is hurt some by the poor har…